If you were Saddam Hussein, you would... ?

With Allied forces now fully deploying their forces into the middle east in preparation for a Feb/March invasion, the question is what will the Iraqi leader choose to do ?
  For a moment, consider what you would be considering right now if you were Saddam. You realise of course that the enemy forces are going to attack and defeat your armies. Despite your investment in the military, your forces are doomed to fail eventually against such a mighty opposition. The combined strength of the USA, UK, and some other smaller component forces, will undoubtedly overwhelm your army. So, you are going to lose power. You are going to be toppled, and more than likely, many will try to assassinate you.

Q. What options are there for you to show defiance in the face of your enemy ?

These are your forces to protect you...

-Air power: Iraq's air power is notional, very limited, mostly outdated.

-Sea Power : Small, no real sea power of significance. Noting also, that Iraq only has a very small amount of coastline, 50km in length approx.

-Land power: Army. Iraq has around 1,000 tanks, and somewhere in the region of 2000 artillery pieces. Although, spare parts are a real problem for the military and not all hardware is in a good operational state of readiness.   

Iraq's general army, 375,000 men (1991 the figure was 955,000).
Republican guard : around 70,000 elite troops.
Special Rep. Guard : approx. 15,000 super-elite troops whose primary role is to protect you and the rest of your leadership/party.
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Notes : Land power info' Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies)
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Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD's)

1. Biological agents
2. Chemical agents
3. Radioactive/Nuclear

   With regards to options 1 and 2, you have used both extensively before. You have had great success in eliminating many thousands of ethnic minorities, in battles against the Iranian army, and in keeping internal rebels under your control.
   It is clear that both bio and chemical weapons would likely cause some significant damage to enemy forces, and are thus very tempting to use once the enemy invasion begins.

   The Nuclear option ? Unless the intelligence communities of all western governments are greatly mistaken, Iraq does not even possess a few nuclear weapons, so this option shall not be considered here. However, matters would be greatly different though were you to have even just 1-5 nuclear weapons,  along with some reliable means of mid-range deployment.

What to do ?
   So, you have a large army of around 450,000 troops, of which around maybe 100,000 are adequately supplied and very capable of fighting against enemy forces. Your air and sea power are effectively of little strength though.  
   You do have some significant capability to launch a chemical and biological attack against invading enemy forces, using your ground artillery. Your ability to launch mid-range cross-country missile strikes is very limited, at best you have 50scud missiles. Even so, you can hit Israel if you so choose, it remains an option.

The Invasion begins...
   In the third week of February,  the 23'rd, Sunday morning, allied forces storm across the border. Your first choice, do you flee your nation ? You have the means and the agreements in place to leave Iraq and reside in a safe country. Yet, no. Leaving is not something you would do. You have fought internal uprisings, you have attacked Iran, and you have fought the Western Powers more than a decade ago and still survived. You choose to stay and fight.

The Enemy invades

   The city of Basra in the south of your country falls to the enemy within a week, despite some significant street by street defensive fighting by your regular army. You remain in Baghdad, and are on the move every night to a new location. The battle does not go well, within a few days the allied forces are already massing all along the south and western flanks of your capital. Your forces are though heavily dug into your capital, your elite guard are highly adept, and are ready to fight the enemy off house by house throughout the city. Your people are very much behind you, they too will fight off the enemy if it comes down to this. You won't fall from power as easily as the western media keep predicting.
  Meanwhile, as the allies continue to mass around your Capital, in the North insurrection is now rife. A coalition of rebels now claim to have taken control of the north of the country. The top third of Iraq is now out of your control, as well as the southern area currently over-run by enemy forces. So you remain in your capital, surrounded by the strongest part of your military, and you still seem to have the populace very much on your side.

Choices choices...

   Day 8 of the invasion, and a new enemy push has begun. Baghdad is about to face the land invasion.
You see the City being over-run within hours, what other choice do you now have? Your trusted general is at your side, and you give the order, a full chemical attack is to be launched immediately on the allied forces that have started to approach the outer perimeter of your Capital.
   What choice do you have ? The enemy invades the very heart of your nation, now you will use all available weapons. The Republican guard are content to fight street by street, and the enemy are now starting to count their losses. Hundreds of allied troops are now failing in their mission. Your chemical attacks have truly struck a fierce blow to the enemy, the initial push has faltered on the outskirts of the city. Despite the continued aerial attacks, you remain secure and able to give orders to your regional commanders. 
   At the same time as your forces repel the land invasion into the outer area of Baghdad, you decide to strike out at your nemesis Israel. Your capability to hit Israel is very limited, but you have a few hidden groups of troops with 7Scud missiles between them. They are armed with either chemical or biological agents, your weapons of last resort are ready.

Israel Attacked

   With the attack on Israel, your generals inform you Baghdad is now a primary nuclear target. They advise you to leave, but you choose to stay. The battle in the outer reaches of your capital is a hail of endless gun and artillery fire. The fighting is fierce, and casualties are starting to mount on both sides. Yet, losses are of no concern, you still remain in control, you still have an army, an elite guard who will fight to the end with you.  
   By Day 10, the enemy have suffered over 1,700 dead, with more than 5,500 injured. Your losses are much higher, but it does not matter. Your forces have stood their ground, they have done well. Yet, after a brief lull in fighting, the unthinkable happens.

Tactical battlefield nuclear weapons

   You were well aware that if you ever used any of your WMD's, the enemy might carry out their threats. Early morning on day 11 of the invasion a single battlefield nuke is detonated on the south-western outskirts of the city. It was a ground explosion, damage was very limited to within a mile of the detonation. Yet, what now ? You receive a communication, the enemy is demanding the immediate surrender of your forces, or they will launch a direct strike on your capital, and annihilate your capital. Do you surrender ? You do still have the means and ability to escape to a safe country, or do you want to fight to the last soldier, even if means your capital is incinerated ?
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Back to reality...
  
   I suppose the above scenario could be way off the mark, and War itself is still not yet assured, never mind actually underway. However, the allied forces are presently building up a force of around 250,000 troops, along with a vast array of weaponry - including the limited nuclear strike.
   President Hussein is indeed in a very difficult position right now. Saddam has the opportunity to flee the country once any invasion has begun, or to fight to the death in a street battle that could last months.
   The key aspect of the battle that seems relentlessly ahead of us, is whether Saddam will use his WMD's. He does indeed have significant ability to deploy them on a local level, which could prove very troublesome for the allied forces.
   Allied forces were in comparison very lucky in the Gulf War of 1991, things were so much simpler then. Kick the Iraqi army out of Kuwait, end of story. Now though, matters are highly complex, and indeed very uncertain.
   When pushed to the wall, what boundaries, what limits would a madman reach to ? The President of Iraq has the ability to retaliate against an allied invasion with some frightening weapons. Weapons that would likely cause much suffering to both his enemies and his own people. The question remains, when you put yourself in his position, what would you do ?
 

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© 2003 Philip Calrissian
Last Updated : 25/03/04

 

Iraqi Flag :

Stats...

Population: 24.0 million
Growth rate : 2.8%
Life Expectancy : 67.38yrs , F: 68.5, M : 66.31

Infant mortality : 57.6 per 1000 live births

Literacy : Total pop: 58%, m: 70%. f: 45%

GDP : $59 billion value,  Growth rate 2001: -5.7%  composition by sector...
agriculture: 6%
industry: 13%
services: 81% (1999 est.)

Military expenditure : $1.3 billion,

Environment - current issues :water control schemes in the south of the country have lead to population displacement of the indigenous Shi'a Muslims. Inadequate supplies of potable water, serious issues of desertification.

Religions :Muslim 97%

Material goods...

Telephones : 675,000
Internet ISP's : 1
Internet users : 12,500

Date sourced from the CIA database 2002.