North Korea : The New Nuclear Threat ?

As we approach the end of 2002 our thoughts tend to try to foresee what lies ahead in the forthcoming year. At this moment in time there seems to be one great unknown in the balance of world power - North Korea.
   The issue of Iraq is paramount right now in the minds of world leaders, yet Iraq's 2003 outcome is relatively simple to predict. By the end of next March a new temporary government will be installed in Baghdad, and matters in the middle east will look somewhat more stable and hopeful. In contrast however, the issue that is only now starting to reach the mainstream media and general public awareness is that of what North Korea is up to. 
  
Q. So, what is the matter with North Korea ?

Two words : Nuclear weapons.

   During the mid 1990's after some delicately pushed deals with the United States and the United Nations, the dictatorship of North Korea agreed to stop its rapidly developing programme of nuclear power generation. Naturally, world governments were not so much concerned that another country was developing (what remains arguably a dangerous manner and uneconomic) means of generating electricity, but of  North Korea having the means to produce the plutonium necessary to make nuclear weapons. 

   As of writing, today the United Nations nuclear watchdog noted that North Korea has moved 1,000 nuclear fuel rods to a reactor that could produce weapons-grade plutonium. Clearly, things are now restarting in North Korea's nuclear programme. The problem the Western Powers now face is what to do about this alarming development. Worst still though is that time is not a luxury. According to reports, North Korea could be running a production line for Nuclear bombs within 3-5months, and have an annual output of as many as 50 bombs a year if they utilise their current unused capacity. 

   So, not only might North Korea have the relatively instant ability to start producing bombs by next summer, but that they have the capacity to produce a significant number of bombs within such a short period. By xmas 2003, we have the dire prospect of North Korea having around 15-35 brand new nuclear bombs to add to it's armoury. From current analysis and related reports, most agree that North Korea might well already possess a haft dozen nuclear bombs from its work in the late 1990's.

Briefly, let us look at the state of North Korea as a nation state.

   The following summary from the CIA (2002) provides a good synopsis of the state of this Asian state.

"North Korea, one of the world's most centrally planned and isolated economies, faces desperate economic conditions. Industrial capital stock is nearly beyond repair as a result of years of underinvestment and spare parts shortages. Industrial and power output have declined in parallel. Despite a good harvest in 2001, the nation faces its eighth year of food shortages because of a lack of arable land; collective farming; weather-related problems, including major drought in 2000; and chronic shortages of fertilizer and fuel. Massive international food aid deliveries have allowed the regime to escape mass starvation since 1995-96, but the population remains vulnerable to prolonged malnutrition and deteriorating living conditions. Large-scale military spending eats up resources needed for investment and civilian consumption. In 2001, the regime placed emphasis on earning hard currency, developing information technology, addressing power shortages, and attracting foreign aid, but in no way at the expense of relinquishing central control over key national assets or undergoing widespread market-oriented reforms." -  CIA Handbook 2002.

  North Korea is essentially a total mess, a wasting wreck of a nation. The economic and social mess of this nation is a result of the failing policies of the communist political leadership. This one party state has ruined what once was a relatively prosperous agricultural state. Today there remain chronic food shortages, and the population is very much dependent upon food aid from the UN and other donor countries.
  Economically speaking, North Korea is very poor, with GDP level of just $21billion. As all reports note, the country is a wreck, the nation's infrastructure is almost totally degraded and beyond repair. Spare parts are lacking, meaning the mid term outlook of 5-15 years offers little prospect of improvement.
   Government expenditure on the military is around $5 billion a year, which is of course a total insult to the starving population. Millions are without adequate basic rations, lack basis services, whilst the government now spend a disproportionate amount of  what resources they do have on renewing their nuclear programme.

Q What action to take ?

When George W. Bush declared his 'Axis of Evil', were many people really surprised to see North Korea included in this ultimate 'hit list' ?
In retrospect to Bush's axial reference, things are continuing to fall into place in the overall plan that Bush had foreseen. North Korea has now broken it's agreements to refrain from development of Nuclear technology, and sometime in 2003 North Korea will  have fully working reactors supplying the plutonium necessary to create nuclear bombs.

   If things proceed as they currently are, North Korea will become an 'active target' for an allied coalition sometime in autumn 2003. The implications of a second pre-emptive strike on a sovereign state are vast, yet... does the world want to allow a deeply unstable regime to have the ability to obliterate parts of the world in a flash of blinding light ?
  
   The only concern that I have is with regards to China. What does China really see as 'acceptable' action right now? Would China sit back and allow North Korea to have it's nuclear developmental facilities bombed by American forces ? If China is privately content for such an attack by US forces, then we can be somewhat more calm about matters. However, China may well not like having US forces attack a direct neighbour - and who in all fairness could blame China for actively defending it's near neighbour ?
 
   The only real strategic military concern is whether North Korea already possesses any nuclear weaponry. If they do already have a few bombs, then this does change matters to some extent - although of course North Korea can not win any war due to its failed economy. Would Bush still proceed with an attack on North Korea despite intelligence reports that Korea could retaliate with nuclear force ?
   News reports over the last week have displayed how the North Korean leadership has threatened the US with 'ultimate force' if any aggressive action takes place. Clearly, a fierce war of words is now escalating to new levels, the only unknown is how far this will continue, until one side declares the other an official 'enemy' and take military action against the other.

   In all consideration of the current unstable situation, it seems likely that sometime late 2003 North Korea will have its nuclear facilities targeted. Such an attack might well be the provocation that leads to the third usage of nuclear weapons in recent history. Perhaps Iran should also start to be concerned for its 'national sovereignty'. After all, Afghanistan's government was toppled, Iraq's regime will soon fall,.. North Korea is now becoming the 'next target'.
  
   If North Korea is targeted, then it indeed looks like Bush's axial speech on the 'rogue states' was indeed a slightly covert political form of declaring war on three nations at once.

Contact Calrissian

Last updated : 25/03/04
 

World Population : 6.264 billion as at Dec 26'th.'02

US/World population clock

Related Links of interests...

Rumsfield gets tough on North Korea

Analysis: North Korea - a time bomb

 
Stats...

Population: 22.2 million

Life Expectancy : 71.3yrs , F: 74.4, M : 68.3

GDP : $21.8 billion value,  Growth rate 2001: -3%  composition by sector...
agriculture: 30%
industry: 42%
services: 28% (1999 est.)

Military expenditure : $5.1 billion, 31.3% of GDP

Environment - current issues :water pollution; inadequate supplies of potable water; water-borne disease; deforestation; soil erosion and degradation

Religions : traditionally Buddhist and Confucianist, some Christian and syncretic Chondogyo (Religion of the Heavenly Way)
note: autonomous religious activities now almost nonexistent; government-sponsored religious groups exist to provide illusion of religious freedom

Material goods...

Telephones : 1.1million
Internet ISP's : 1

Date sourced from the CIA database 2002.